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martedì 9 maggio 2017

Manly: L’LBMA promette maggiore trasparenza sul mercato dei metalli preziosi per l'estate



La fumosita’ che da sempre contraddistingue il mercato dell’oro, ma in particolare quello di Londra, sta per essere un po’ diradata? L’LBMA, la London Bullion Market Association, dice ora (ma non l’aveva gia’ detto l’anno scorso?) per l’estate le quantita’ di oro e argento in custodia nelle varie vaults di Londra, Bank of England compresa, saranno dichiarate mese per mese. 


Ronan Manly (BullionVault) - Summer of 17: LBMA Confirms Upcoming Publication of London Gold Vault Holdings 
(...) Its possible to go someway towards estimating a minimum figure for how much gold to expect the LBMA to report on the commercial vaults when it begins vaults reporting this summer. The same exercise could be conducted for silver but is beyond the scope of this analysis. For gold, when such a figure is calculated and added to the amount of gold in the Bank of England vaults, it gives a grand total of how much gold is in the combined LBMA and Bank of England vaults in London. 
A large number of high-profile gold-backed ETFs store their gold bars in LBMA vaults in London, mainly in the vaults of HSBC and JP Morgan. The HSBC vault in London holds gold on behalf of the SPDR Gold Trust (currently 853 tonnes) and ETF Securities (about 215 tonnes). The JP Morgan gold vault in London holds gold on behalf of ETFs run by iShares (about 210 tonnes in London), Deutsche Bank (95 tonnes), and Source (100 tonnes). An ABSA ETF holds about 36 tonnes of gold with Brinks in London. In total, these ETFs represent about 1510 tonnes of gold. For the approach used to calculate this type of figure for gold-backed ETFs, please see “Tracking the gold held in London: An update on ETF and BoE holdings“. 

A  Londra ci sono (sarebbero?) le belle quantita’ di diversi ETF in oro fisico:

- 835 tonnellate dell’SPDR Gold Trust, gestite dalla HSBC (famosa per, anche, i traffici di droga e per essere una delle 3 banche che stampa i dollari di Hong Kong) 
- 210 tonnellate d’oro dell’iShares nelle vaults di JP Morgan (famosa per ... ecc, ecc. ;D) 
- 95 tonnellate d’oro nelle vaults di Deutsche Bank 
- 36 tonnellate d’oro dell’ETF ABSA (?) nelle vaults di Brinks (la ditta di trasporti corazzati) 
...

In totale quello degli ETF dovrebbe ammontare a circa 1500 tonnellate


ETF gold holdings (most of which are stored in London) have been relatively static since mid March 2017. See chart below. Therefore if the LBMA starts reporting vault gold holdings for a month-end date such as month-end March 2017, it would probably reflect about 1500 tonnes of ETF gold, mostly held by at HSBC and JP Morgan vaults in London. This is assuming that some of the ETF gold is not held in sub-custody at the Bank of England vaults.



Until the LBMA starts its vault reporting, its unclear how much other gold is in the commercial vaults in London above and beyond the ETF holdings. 

Ma a parte l’oro degli ETF non e’ chiaro quanto altro oro ci sia nelle vaults commerciali (non BoE, Bank of England).. dettaglio da nulla visto che quello di Londra che sarebbe IL mercato mondiale dell’oro (sicuramente lo e’ stato per 100 anni almeno e sino all’avvento dell’SGE, lo Shanghai Gold Exchange negli ultimi 10 anni circa)

However, non-monetary gold regularly flows in and out of the London Gold Market from gold trade with countries such as Switzerland. While March 2016 to October 2016 was a period in which the UK was a strong net importer of non-monetary gold from Switzerland, since then the UK has been a net exporter of gold to Switzerland, and has exported 325 tonnes of gold from October 2016 to end of March 2017. Therefore, whatever data the LBMA starts reporting, it logically should reflect the renewed outflow of gold from London to places like Switzerland and would tend to suggest that whatever excess bullion bank float gold is in the London commercial vaults, it is less than it would have been in the absence of these renewed outflows.

Da Londra partono ma anche arrivano flussi dalla Svizzera (dove viene raffinato e spedito in Cina, dove lo vogliono praticamente solo a purezza massima, 99,9 o 99,99%)

The vaulting page of the LBMA website still has there are: 
“6,500 tonnes of gold held in London vaults, of which about three quarters is stored in the Bank of England”



L’LBMA dice che a Londra ci sono 6.500 tonnellate d’oro, di cui 3/4 sono conservate alla BoE ... 


While this web page text is probably slightly out of date, a literal interpretation would imply that 4875 tonnes of gold are in the Bank of England (which is not too far from the actual figure) and that 1625 tonnes are in the commercial vaults (which would mean that very little non-ETF gold is in the commercial vaults). 
The Bank of England claims to have about 72 central bank customers with gold accounts, For month-end January 2017, the Bank of England is reporting that there was approximately 5100 tonnes of gold in its vaults. At least 3800 tonnes of this gold is claimed to be owned by 34 known central banks. See “Central Bank Gold at the Bank of England” for more details. That would leave about 1300 tonnes of gold at the Bank of England owned by a selection of other central banks and bullion banks. As to how much gold the bullion banks hold at the Bank of England is not clear, but since central bank gold holdings are relatively static (at least when excluding gold lending), then most of the month-to-month movements in Bank of England gold vault holdings are most likely due to bullion bank activity.

.. quindi sarebbero circa 5.000 le tonnellate conservate alla BoE. Ma non sono (non sarebbero) in vendita visto che si tratta per la maggior parte - almeno 3.800 tonnellate - di oro di altre banche centrali lasciato li perche’ .. perche’ UK ed USA hanno vinto la 2a guerra mondiale sostanzialmente e Londra e NY sono (ancora, circa) il centro mondiale della finanza ;D

As to how easily bullion bank gold holdings at the Bank of England can switch to or be transported to the vaults of the commercial vault operators in London is also unclear, as logistics is a secretive area of the London Gold Market. 
So with (1500 ETF tonnes of gold + X) in the commercial vaults, and 5100 tonnes of gold in the Bank of England vaults, this gives a grand total of 6600 tonnes of gold + X in all the vaults of the London as of early 2017. X could be 400 tonnes, it could be 1400 tonnes, or it could be any other figure of similar magnitude. My guess is that there is not that much gold in the commercial vaults above and beyond whats in the gold-backed ETFs. Maybe a few hundred tonnes or so. However, we will have to wait until the dog days of ‘summer’ in London to know this definitively.
Insomma, tutto sto conticino per capire quanto veramente Londra sia ancora da considerarsi un mercato dell’oro fisico, perche’ tolti gli ETF e le riserve auree di altre BC resta mica tantissimo da vendere e comprare. 

Secondo Manly alla fine il cosidetto “flottante” di Londra ammonterebbe a solo poche centinaja di tonnellate, fra le 400 e le 1400 tonnellate

Per inquadrare: In questi anni di produzioni mondiali record di sempre - da quanto l’uomo esiste e probabilmente sino a quando esistera’ visto che anche i grossi giornali della finanza parlano di peak gold - dalle miniere di tutto il mondo escono sulle 3.200 tonnellate di nuovo oro ogni anno. 

E sempre per inquadrare: all’SGE di oro ne viene venduto per 100-250 tonnellate al mese (!).


Eppure sono questi i mercati che decidono il prezzo. E non parliamo poi del COMEX di New York, li ormai siamo alla barzelletta, e da mo, praticamente solo scommesse e futures, ritiri di fisico ridotti al lumicino da anni ormai.

2 commenti:

  1. OT ma è una "notizia" da farci un post?
    Quando lo ho visto il "pepitone" non ho potuto fare a meno di pensare a ER. :-)
    http://www.geologyin.com/2017/05/this-giant-gold-nugget-was-found-in.html
    70 ONCE! naturale.. come madre natura lo ha fatto. una rarita! Ha un valore anche come reperto geologico naturale che va oltre il prezzo di mercato. Sarebbe interessate scoprire a quanto vendono "reperti" simili.
    Ciao! Doveroso segnalartelo.
    Thegem

    RispondiElimina
    Risposte
    1. ciao Gem, grazie. Beato chi ci ha inciampato contro :D

      Elimina